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Revista Española de Salud Pública

Print version ISSN 1135-5727

Abstract

MUNOZ, M. Pilar; ORCAU, Angels  and  CAYLA, Joan. Tuberculosis in Barcelona: a predictive model based on temporal series. Rev. Esp. Salud Publica [online]. 2009, vol.83, n.5, pp. 751-757. ISSN 1135-5727.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1135-57272009000500016.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to cause millions of new cases and deaths worldwide every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently estimated that in 2007 9,273,000 cases (incidence 139/100,000 inhabitants) and 1,772,000 deaths were attributed to TB and, in the previous year, the absolute figure was slightly lower (9,240,000 cases) and the incidence somewhat higher (140/100,000), making it difficult to determine whether there was a reduction or not. The objective of this study was to apply fovecasting models to TB, differentiating between indigenous and immigrant subjects, in a city in which the annual number of cases has been recorded since 1987. Adjusted segmented regression (piecewise regression) was applied to the series of new cases in the indigenous and immigrant populations of Barcelona. The evolution of TB differed radically; whereas in the indigenous population there was a downward trend, coinciding with the reduction in new of cases of AIDS, in immigrants there was an upward trend. The estimated number of new cases in 2009 was 168 (95% CI 109 - 227) in indigenous subjects and 227 (95% CI, 180 - 275) in immigrants.

Keywords : Tuberculosis incidence; forecast; piecewise regression.

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